* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/21/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 38 45 53 58 61 66 70 75 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 38 45 37 30 28 27 27 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 29 31 35 31 28 27 27 27 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 2 7 12 8 6 8 12 11 13 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 2 -2 -2 -2 -4 -5 -6 -6 -1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 299 329 24 283 326 44 347 339 310 310 315 11 334 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 158 162 165 168 168 166 163 157 153 154 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 145 142 145 147 148 146 142 138 130 125 128 132 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 49 49 50 51 53 54 58 60 61 66 67 65 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 3 3 3 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR -80 -85 -83 -80 -83 -81 -86 -63 -56 -32 -25 -30 -50 200 MB DIV 9 1 2 5 12 0 -2 7 6 18 6 33 3 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 -1 -1 0 -3 1 0 2 5 4 3 LAND (KM) 401 381 386 366 331 195 58 -57 -96 -81 -55 0 49 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.0 24.4 24.6 24.8 25.4 26.0 26.7 27.3 28.1 28.5 28.5 27.8 LONG(DEG W) 72.3 73.8 74.8 75.7 76.7 78.3 79.6 80.7 81.4 81.6 81.3 80.6 79.9 STM SPEED (KT) 16 12 9 9 9 7 6 5 5 3 2 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 57 40 46 38 92 92 68 70 43 33 18 12 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 13. 20. 28. 33. 36. 41. 45. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.5 72.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/21/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.81 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 54.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.35 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.75 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.83 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.17 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 207.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.73 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 74.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.26 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 19.1% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 7.7% 3.9% 0.7% 0.1% 4.6% 5.5% 8.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 9.0% 6.0% 0.2% 0.0% 1.5% 1.8% 2.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 08/21/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/21/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 31 38 45 37 30 28 27 27 35 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 36 43 35 28 26 25 25 33 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 32 39 31 24 22 21 21 29 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 31 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT