* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/21/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 35 42 48 55 57 61 66 74 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 35 42 48 36 31 29 37 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 31 28 28 36 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 10 11 5 8 15 6 10 14 15 15 16 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -3 0 -4 -5 -5 -6 -5 -4 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 249 278 309 346 294 345 331 314 266 292 266 331 323 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.8 30.0 29.8 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 157 158 160 166 169 164 157 155 152 153 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 146 144 143 143 148 148 142 132 130 125 127 138 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 13 12 13 11 12 10 11 9 10 700-500 MB RH 51 52 51 52 53 54 57 60 62 65 66 65 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 3 2 3 5 9 850 MB ENV VOR -67 -73 -83 -79 -76 -79 -77 -86 -45 -37 -19 -32 -33 200 MB DIV 0 8 -2 -1 2 3 2 -3 7 7 33 16 30 700-850 TADV 0 2 -2 -2 0 -4 -3 0 -1 1 3 4 2 LAND (KM) 336 370 367 359 364 323 159 13 -27 -40 0 39 102 LAT (DEG N) 22.8 23.2 23.6 24.0 24.3 24.9 25.8 26.6 27.5 28.1 28.5 28.4 27.5 LONG(DEG W) 70.5 72.1 73.3 74.3 75.2 77.1 78.6 80.0 80.6 81.0 80.6 80.2 79.2 STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 11 9 9 9 7 7 3 3 2 3 8 HEAT CONTENT 57 62 42 10 48 96 81 52 59 32 12 30 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -6. -8. -8. -6. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 17. 23. 30. 32. 36. 41. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.8 70.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/21/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.82 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 43.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.28 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.63 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.83 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.15 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 199.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.74 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 44.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.55 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 19.0% 14.4% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 18.2% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 10.0% 5.4% 1.4% 0.3% 1.7% 3.1% 9.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 9.7% 6.6% 3.3% 0.1% 0.6% 7.1% 3.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 08/21/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/21/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 30 35 42 48 36 31 29 37 44 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 34 41 47 35 30 28 36 43 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 37 43 31 26 24 32 39 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 29 35 23 18 16 24 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT