* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/20/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 30 36 42 50 56 61 65 69 74 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 30 36 42 50 35 29 28 27 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 30 33 37 30 28 27 27 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 13 10 5 12 6 8 7 15 12 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -5 -1 0 -4 -3 -3 -6 -5 -3 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 289 246 282 317 18 317 21 304 284 268 256 259 245 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.2 28.8 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 158 157 158 164 167 165 162 160 152 146 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 149 148 144 143 147 148 144 138 134 126 122 129 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 13 14 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 10 7 9 700-500 MB RH 47 49 50 49 51 54 56 59 63 64 67 62 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 2 3 5 850 MB ENV VOR -73 -62 -76 -84 -81 -77 -73 -82 -61 -16 5 1 -16 200 MB DIV -1 2 1 -7 3 -5 4 0 14 21 49 20 52 700-850 TADV 5 2 1 -4 1 -4 -1 -1 0 1 2 6 5 LAND (KM) 324 345 392 393 386 366 188 24 -86 -53 -75 0 124 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.9 23.4 23.9 24.3 25.0 25.9 26.5 27.4 28.1 28.9 29.3 29.2 LONG(DEG W) 69.0 70.7 72.1 73.4 74.4 76.4 78.3 79.9 81.2 81.9 81.9 81.1 79.6 STM SPEED (KT) 18 15 13 11 10 10 9 8 5 5 4 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 43 58 60 41 33 81 78 56 45 51 28 4 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -8. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 25. 31. 36. 40. 44. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.5 69.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/20/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.82 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 47.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.30 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.82 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.85 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.14 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 214.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.73 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 71.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.28 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 24.2% 15.1% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 10.5% 6.1% 1.4% 0.3% 4.2% 4.1% 8.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 3.8% 11.6% 7.0% 3.2% 0.1% 1.4% 1.4% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 08/20/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/20/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 30 36 42 50 35 29 28 27 35 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 29 35 41 49 34 28 27 26 34 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 25 31 37 45 30 24 23 22 30 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 30 38 23 17 16 15 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT