* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/20/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 28 33 40 48 54 59 65 68 70 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 28 33 40 48 54 50 38 37 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 23 24 25 28 31 36 36 31 33 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 2 5 11 6 12 9 11 11 14 16 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 0 -6 -1 -5 -4 -3 -4 -4 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 264 296 293 224 285 7 322 38 330 334 296 269 269 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.3 28.6 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 156 156 158 157 161 167 165 159 155 144 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 152 148 146 147 143 145 149 145 136 132 122 118 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 14 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 10 6 700-500 MB RH 44 47 48 49 50 52 53 55 58 60 64 68 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -65 -77 -81 -72 -83 -89 -88 -81 -75 -67 -28 -9 2 200 MB DIV -7 -3 -3 -10 4 -9 0 -8 -9 7 22 45 39 700-850 TADV 5 7 6 3 1 0 -7 0 -4 3 0 4 6 LAND (KM) 345 366 344 337 368 436 430 298 113 -8 -46 13 87 LAT (DEG N) 21.4 21.8 22.3 22.7 23.1 24.2 25.0 25.9 26.5 27.5 28.4 29.8 31.2 LONG(DEG W) 64.8 66.6 68.1 69.4 70.7 73.1 75.2 77.2 79.0 80.4 81.1 81.1 80.4 STM SPEED (KT) 19 16 14 13 13 11 11 9 8 7 6 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 53 45 38 46 58 42 59 68 71 58 23 4 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 770 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 19. 23. 27. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 3. 8. 15. 23. 29. 34. 40. 43. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 21.4 64.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/20/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.79 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 48.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.31 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.80 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.87 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.12 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 219.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.72 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 61.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.39 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 17.4% 12.9% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 17.8% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 13.3% 7.8% 2.6% 0.4% 7.4% 7.7% 13.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 10.3% 6.9% 3.2% 0.1% 2.5% 8.5% 4.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 08/20/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/20/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 24 25 28 33 40 48 54 50 38 37 39 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 28 33 40 48 54 50 38 37 39 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 25 30 37 45 51 47 35 34 36 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 30 38 44 40 28 27 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT