* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/20/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 35 40 47 55 60 65 71 75 77 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 35 40 47 55 60 65 71 75 77 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 34 38 44 49 56 63 70 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 10 2 3 8 3 10 4 7 6 12 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 3 0 -3 0 -6 -3 -6 -4 -7 -4 SHEAR DIR 240 258 296 294 235 324 310 4 317 311 241 253 238 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 157 158 158 159 158 162 164 159 154 150 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 153 151 148 147 146 142 143 142 135 130 128 123 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 -54.1 -53.8 -54.3 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 14 14 13 13 12 12 11 12 9 9 700-500 MB RH 45 46 47 48 49 51 54 56 59 60 64 68 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -53 -62 -75 -83 -81 -91 -80 -84 -73 -79 -33 -19 -6 200 MB DIV -2 -6 2 -6 -4 -12 -2 -9 -1 2 32 35 62 700-850 TADV -2 5 6 6 3 -1 0 -4 -2 0 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 428 359 400 381 393 494 505 425 267 158 146 159 234 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.6 22.1 22.7 23.2 24.3 25.3 26.1 26.9 27.5 28.4 29.5 30.9 LONG(DEG W) 63.0 65.0 66.7 68.1 69.3 71.9 74.0 75.9 77.4 78.6 79.1 79.4 78.8 STM SPEED (KT) 21 18 15 13 13 12 10 9 7 6 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 39 51 39 37 43 50 57 66 46 63 50 39 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 23 CX,CY: -21/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 876 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 17. 25. 30. 35. 41. 45. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.2 63.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/20/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.80 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 41.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.27 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.71 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.83 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.13 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 266.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.68 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 31.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.69 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 45% is 7.4 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 18.8% 14.1% 8.5% 7.2% 13.9% 19.1% 44.5% Logistic: 4.5% 17.5% 10.6% 4.2% 0.7% 8.9% 12.0% 20.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 3.6% 12.1% 8.2% 4.2% 2.6% 7.6% 10.4% 21.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 08/20/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/20/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 33 35 40 47 55 60 65 71 75 77 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 34 39 46 54 59 64 70 74 76 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 35 42 50 55 60 66 70 72 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 34 42 47 52 58 62 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT