* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/19/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 40 46 54 57 63 68 72 74 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 35 40 46 54 57 63 68 72 74 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 32 36 40 46 52 58 65 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 14 7 2 6 5 12 5 8 6 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 0 4 -4 -2 -5 -3 -2 -6 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 259 248 255 280 169 279 32 315 20 320 311 283 244 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 154 155 158 160 159 159 163 161 154 154 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 149 148 147 149 150 145 143 142 137 129 130 132 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 12 11 9 700-500 MB RH 45 45 46 46 47 50 51 52 56 59 62 66 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 1 850 MB ENV VOR -58 -60 -72 -86 -89 -85 -86 -87 -67 -78 -53 -17 1 200 MB DIV -5 -4 -15 -2 5 -2 3 -6 2 -2 11 38 79 700-850 TADV 0 -7 1 6 5 0 0 -6 0 -2 2 -3 8 LAND (KM) 611 479 407 413 450 465 571 553 357 247 207 260 316 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.3 21.7 22.2 22.8 23.9 25.2 26.2 27.3 27.9 28.8 29.7 31.2 LONG(DEG W) 60.5 62.4 64.1 65.6 67.0 69.8 72.3 74.6 76.5 77.8 78.5 78.3 76.9 STM SPEED (KT) 20 17 16 14 14 14 12 11 8 6 5 7 10 HEAT CONTENT 45 35 49 37 33 43 48 72 65 64 47 43 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 21 CX,CY: -19/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 828 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -8. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 16. 24. 27. 33. 38. 42. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.8 60.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/19/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.74 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 39.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.25 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.62 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.81 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.12 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 273.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.67 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 31.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.68 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.7 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 17.4% 13.1% 8.0% 6.7% 13.2% 17.5% 28.3% Logistic: 3.5% 10.0% 5.7% 2.1% 0.3% 5.6% 10.2% 14.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 3.1% 9.2% 6.3% 3.4% 2.4% 6.3% 9.2% 14.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 08/19/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/19/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 33 35 40 46 54 57 63 68 72 74 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 33 38 44 52 55 61 66 70 72 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 34 40 48 51 57 62 66 68 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 33 41 44 50 55 59 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT