* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/19/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 34 38 43 50 54 59 63 67 68 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 34 38 43 50 54 59 63 67 68 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 31 33 37 42 47 53 59 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 15 14 5 1 9 5 13 9 14 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 1 0 2 1 -1 -3 -7 -5 -4 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 267 261 245 253 269 317 357 360 1 341 348 344 356 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 149 150 152 154 158 161 160 158 156 160 159 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 144 145 146 147 150 149 144 140 134 135 133 134 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 12 10 700-500 MB RH 46 47 47 46 47 48 50 52 55 56 58 62 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -56 -61 -56 -64 -76 -81 -94 -82 -73 -70 -67 -42 -26 200 MB DIV -8 -7 -4 2 4 -6 -10 2 -5 2 5 17 47 700-850 TADV 4 0 -5 2 5 -1 -7 -2 -5 -2 0 1 3 LAND (KM) 850 704 570 472 416 484 521 619 619 485 383 389 453 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.5 20.9 21.3 21.8 23.1 24.4 25.5 26.4 27.1 27.7 28.5 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 57.8 59.4 61.0 62.5 64.1 66.9 69.7 71.9 73.9 75.2 76.3 76.5 76.1 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 15 15 15 13 10 9 5 5 4 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 54 40 36 48 31 38 47 67 64 60 51 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 718 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 20. 24. 29. 33. 37. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.0 57.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/19/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.63 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 42.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.27 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.56 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.78 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.13 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 264.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.68 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 14.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 16.5% 12.7% 8.1% 6.8% 12.9% 16.1% 21.1% Logistic: 2.7% 9.1% 5.3% 2.3% 0.4% 3.9% 9.1% 19.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 2.9% 8.6% 6.0% 3.5% 2.4% 5.6% 8.4% 13.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 08/19/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/19/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 32 34 38 43 50 54 59 63 67 68 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 33 37 42 49 53 58 62 66 67 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 33 38 45 49 54 58 62 63 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 31 38 42 47 51 55 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT