* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/19/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 43 48 53 57 61 64 67 71 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 43 48 53 57 61 64 67 71 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 34 35 36 40 46 51 57 64 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 17 15 16 16 1 6 7 12 6 10 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 3 0 -3 5 -4 -2 -6 -5 -5 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 266 266 263 238 241 214 315 44 309 11 323 49 306 SST (C) 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.8 29.6 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 146 149 152 152 155 158 161 159 160 165 160 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 142 144 146 147 148 150 147 145 142 144 136 132 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.7 -0.8 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 700-500 MB RH 49 47 48 49 49 49 51 54 55 56 59 61 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 2 2 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -50 -53 -46 -55 -66 -77 -80 -78 -71 -71 -58 -17 200 MB DIV 5 -9 -1 2 11 6 -4 -6 -1 10 2 7 41 700-850 TADV 8 2 -1 -5 6 2 0 0 -7 1 -3 1 0 LAND (KM) 1006 846 693 559 443 392 408 500 512 477 300 183 138 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.8 20.2 20.5 20.8 22.0 23.1 24.3 25.1 25.9 26.6 27.4 28.2 LONG(DEG W) 56.2 57.8 59.4 60.9 62.4 65.5 68.4 71.0 73.3 75.4 77.1 78.3 79.1 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 15 14 15 15 15 12 11 9 8 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 27 35 54 44 37 43 37 47 48 69 42 67 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 19 CX,CY: -16/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 816 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 22. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 37. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.4 56.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/19/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.54 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 39.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.25 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.69 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.77 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.15 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 243.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.70 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 6.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.2 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 19.0% 14.7% 9.3% 7.9% 14.1% 18.4% 31.4% Logistic: 6.3% 19.9% 13.2% 6.8% 1.3% 12.5% 17.9% 24.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 1.9% Consensus: 4.8% 13.3% 9.4% 5.4% 3.1% 8.9% 12.2% 19.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 08/19/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/19/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 38 43 48 53 57 61 64 67 71 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 40 45 50 54 58 61 64 68 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 35 40 45 49 53 56 59 63 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 32 37 41 45 48 51 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT