* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/19/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 28 32 37 43 48 51 60 64 71 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 28 32 37 43 48 51 60 64 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 24 24 25 27 31 35 41 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 18 14 13 10 9 6 3 11 3 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 6 2 3 3 0 -1 -4 0 -5 -5 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 293 273 276 274 232 239 206 323 239 340 316 314 241 SST (C) 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.9 30.1 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 145 148 152 152 155 156 156 157 161 168 171 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 144 144 147 145 148 148 147 144 147 151 154 160 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.7 -0.9 -0.6 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 13 13 12 13 12 13 12 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 50 48 47 47 50 52 55 56 60 61 64 64 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 3 2 3 2 3 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -37 -49 -47 -48 -59 -44 -72 -60 -66 -60 -60 -40 200 MB DIV 21 3 -2 11 8 13 7 -10 5 8 -7 -3 13 700-850 TADV 9 5 1 -4 -8 5 -4 -3 -3 -6 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1110 910 730 569 440 290 303 312 371 315 268 91 21 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.9 20.1 20.3 20.5 21.0 21.7 22.6 23.5 23.9 24.5 24.9 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 55.2 57.2 59.0 60.7 62.2 65.2 67.8 70.7 73.0 75.4 77.5 79.6 81.5 STM SPEED (KT) 22 18 17 15 14 14 13 13 11 11 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 23 30 51 47 38 58 40 59 46 48 91 76 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 24 CX,CY: -21/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 900 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 32. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -9. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 18. 23. 26. 35. 39. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.3 55.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/19/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.57 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.24 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.82 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.82 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.18 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 202.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.74 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 7.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 16.3% 12.3% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 7.8% 4.0% 0.9% 0.1% 3.8% 8.9% 29.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 2.5% 8.0% 5.4% 2.7% 0.0% 1.3% 8.4% 9.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 08/19/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/19/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 28 32 37 43 48 51 60 64 64 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 27 31 36 42 47 50 59 63 63 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 28 33 39 44 47 56 60 60 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 26 32 37 40 49 53 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT