* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/18/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 29 32 36 42 45 49 55 60 63 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 29 32 36 42 45 49 55 60 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 23 22 23 25 28 32 38 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 20 22 17 17 9 12 6 9 9 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 6 3 2 0 1 -6 -1 -5 -5 -6 -6 SHEAR DIR 293 292 273 271 272 264 319 325 22 325 26 338 358 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.7 29.8 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 142 144 147 152 155 159 160 159 164 164 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 138 138 141 143 148 150 152 149 146 146 142 136 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -54.2 -54.5 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.7 -0.8 -0.6 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 12 12 13 12 13 13 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 55 54 54 54 54 54 52 54 55 55 55 56 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -23 -30 -40 -49 -49 -63 -77 -86 -84 -78 -78 -70 200 MB DIV 26 33 28 4 5 15 10 -11 -19 1 -5 -4 8 700-850 TADV 11 10 10 5 3 2 1 0 0 -8 0 -3 1 LAND (KM) 1234 1153 1082 921 762 476 370 391 477 470 408 259 184 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.5 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.5 21.7 22.8 24.1 24.9 25.9 26.7 27.7 LONG(DEG W) 52.1 53.8 55.4 57.0 58.6 61.8 65.0 68.1 71.1 73.8 76.1 77.5 78.4 STM SPEED (KT) 19 17 16 16 15 16 16 16 14 12 10 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 22 24 28 31 45 39 49 37 51 48 66 27 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 781 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 31. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 20. 24. 30. 35. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.8 52.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/18/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.41 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 30.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.19 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.80 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.78 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.23 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 173.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.77 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 16.4% 12.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 14.2% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 14.7% 8.5% 3.2% 0.9% 7.8% 11.3% 29.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.8% Consensus: 3.6% 10.5% 7.1% 3.6% 0.3% 2.6% 8.6% 10.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 08/18/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/18/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 27 29 32 36 42 45 49 55 60 63 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 27 30 34 40 43 47 53 58 61 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 23 26 30 36 39 43 49 54 57 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 24 30 33 37 43 48 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT