* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/18/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 39 41 46 50 53 56 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 39 41 46 50 53 56 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 23 22 23 24 26 29 33 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 17 17 21 14 13 11 16 9 18 20 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 7 7 5 2 2 -3 -4 -5 -5 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 275 294 296 277 272 271 283 299 341 352 1 337 346 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 141 141 144 149 152 157 157 160 159 161 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 137 138 138 140 145 148 153 151 149 143 140 140 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -54.2 -54.5 -54.1 -54.2 -53.8 -54.2 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.8 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 11 11 12 12 13 12 13 13 13 12 700-500 MB RH 57 57 59 59 58 59 56 55 56 56 54 54 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 4 5 4 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -22 -23 -28 -39 -40 -53 -56 -83 -83 -91 -79 -76 200 MB DIV 3 35 35 25 6 17 10 -19 -39 -11 2 -24 -11 700-850 TADV 10 7 9 11 8 1 6 -4 -2 2 -5 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 1297 1216 1121 1045 970 677 406 344 352 470 482 424 297 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.4 17.8 18.2 18.7 19.6 20.5 21.6 22.8 24.1 25.2 26.2 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 50.3 52.0 53.5 55.0 56.5 59.4 62.6 65.9 69.2 72.0 74.4 75.9 77.1 STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 15 15 15 15 16 17 16 13 11 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 32 28 29 37 33 54 39 52 43 53 58 66 72 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -8. -10. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 16. 21. 25. 28. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.8 50.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/18/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.44 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.20 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.71 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.77 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.24 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 156.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.78 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 16.0% 12.4% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 11.6% 6.4% 2.1% 1.0% 4.9% 9.2% 22.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 1.7% Consensus: 3.4% 9.3% 6.3% 3.2% 0.3% 1.7% 7.7% 8.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 08/18/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/18/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 39 41 46 50 53 56 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 30 34 38 40 45 49 52 55 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 26 30 34 36 41 45 48 51 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 23 27 29 34 38 41 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT