* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/18/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 32 35 38 42 45 52 56 62 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 32 35 38 42 45 52 56 62 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 23 24 25 28 34 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 18 17 17 18 15 17 10 12 8 5 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 6 6 5 4 0 0 -6 -3 -4 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 274 276 294 289 277 280 250 300 316 15 329 50 337 SST (C) 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.6 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.4 29.8 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 139 141 143 148 154 158 156 155 160 166 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 139 137 139 141 145 153 156 154 148 152 154 156 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.8 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 13 12 13 13 13 13 700-500 MB RH 58 57 57 58 60 57 58 58 61 61 63 62 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 3 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -17 -22 -20 -19 -32 -31 -28 -29 -59 -70 -84 -77 200 MB DIV 11 5 34 36 24 12 26 -7 -2 -3 8 15 -3 700-850 TADV 9 12 8 6 8 3 -1 -1 1 0 -3 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1316 1287 1209 1113 1021 770 417 152 144 204 160 115 94 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.7 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.6 19.0 19.7 20.6 21.7 22.4 23.2 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 48.4 50.3 52.0 53.5 55.1 58.4 61.8 65.3 68.9 72.2 75.2 78.0 80.1 STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 16 15 16 16 17 17 18 15 14 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 19 33 29 30 42 44 45 58 45 52 46 70 76 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 17. 20. 27. 31. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.2 48.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/18/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.50 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 30.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.20 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.52 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.77 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.24 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 147.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.79 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 15.8% 12.2% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 10.0% 5.1% 1.9% 1.3% 3.2% 4.9% 14.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 1.2% Consensus: 3.0% 8.8% 5.9% 3.2% 0.5% 1.1% 5.8% 5.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 08/18/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/18/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 30 32 35 38 42 45 52 56 62 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 30 33 36 40 43 50 54 60 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 26 29 32 36 39 46 50 56 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 19 22 25 29 32 39 43 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT