* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/18/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 34 36 39 42 50 54 63 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 34 36 39 42 50 44 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 23 23 23 26 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 16 21 21 19 17 15 16 11 8 5 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 6 7 9 7 3 -1 -2 -4 -3 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 267 269 277 293 304 290 258 269 258 330 196 1 13 SST (C) 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.5 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.1 29.4 29.5 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 134 136 138 139 142 146 154 155 159 155 160 162 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 138 139 139 140 145 152 153 156 150 155 155 166 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -54.3 -53.8 -54.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 11 11 12 12 13 12 13 12 12 700-500 MB RH 61 59 59 58 59 57 59 59 62 63 67 68 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 7 7 5 5 3 5 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -8 -15 -18 -20 -25 -19 -29 -5 -29 -28 -49 -36 200 MB DIV 19 21 20 27 37 10 21 15 -2 3 9 36 19 700-850 TADV 9 10 12 9 6 5 -5 -7 -9 -4 -5 -6 -1 LAND (KM) 1393 1356 1339 1227 1121 885 539 204 122 61 91 -10 -10 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.6 17.2 17.7 18.1 18.5 18.7 19.0 19.6 20.3 20.7 21.1 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 46.4 48.4 50.3 52.1 53.8 57.3 60.6 63.9 67.1 70.4 73.4 76.5 79.2 STM SPEED (KT) 20 20 19 17 16 17 16 15 16 15 15 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 25 17 26 24 28 35 48 46 60 51 54 95 103 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -9. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 17. 25. 29. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.0 46.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/18/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.48 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.15 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.43 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.77 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.26 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 134.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.80 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 14.2% 11.0% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 10.6% 5.7% 2.7% 1.7% 2.5% 5.1% 15.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.7% Consensus: 2.8% 8.4% 5.6% 3.2% 0.6% 0.8% 5.4% 5.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 08/18/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/18/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 29 31 34 36 39 42 50 44 37 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 29 32 34 37 40 48 42 35 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 25 28 30 33 36 44 38 31 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 21 23 26 29 37 31 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT