* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/17/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 35 37 41 43 47 52 58 64 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 35 37 41 43 47 52 58 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 28 28 27 27 28 31 37 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 12 18 17 16 12 19 11 12 5 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 5 7 7 6 5 -5 0 -5 0 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 353 303 293 292 299 293 270 261 308 306 42 312 34 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.6 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 135 138 139 143 147 154 156 158 155 159 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 135 136 137 136 140 145 152 153 155 148 152 157 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 10 11 12 12 13 12 13 13 13 700-500 MB RH 60 61 60 58 58 62 60 61 58 59 58 61 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 6 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 7 6 -3 -14 -29 -25 -31 -33 -34 -34 -55 -60 -67 200 MB DIV 13 18 17 20 30 20 0 11 10 -15 -24 -14 4 700-850 TADV 2 5 8 11 8 8 4 -1 0 -3 1 -9 -1 LAND (KM) 1425 1342 1297 1276 1214 1025 812 480 202 199 211 205 143 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.6 17.1 17.8 18.5 19.0 19.8 20.7 21.7 22.4 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 44.8 46.8 48.6 50.3 51.8 54.8 58.0 61.2 64.6 68.0 71.2 74.3 77.4 STM SPEED (KT) 20 19 17 16 15 15 15 16 16 17 15 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 31 24 21 34 33 41 41 46 51 44 63 33 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -12. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 16. 18. 22. 27. 33. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.3 44.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/17/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.68 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.18 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.52 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.74 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.23 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 132.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 16.6% 13.0% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 14.8% 7.9% 2.9% 2.2% 4.2% 5.7% 12.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% Consensus: 3.4% 10.6% 7.0% 3.7% 0.7% 1.4% 6.4% 4.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 08/17/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/17/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 32 35 37 41 43 47 52 58 64 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 33 35 39 41 45 50 56 62 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 28 30 34 36 40 45 51 57 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 22 26 28 32 37 43 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT