* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/17/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 34 35 38 39 44 47 54 59 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 34 35 38 39 44 47 54 59 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 28 29 28 27 26 27 28 32 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 8 13 20 19 19 16 16 9 10 2 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 1 3 5 10 8 3 1 -2 -3 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 21 352 309 297 289 304 303 268 284 285 341 290 347 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 133 134 137 139 143 151 154 158 156 157 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 133 133 135 137 137 141 148 151 155 151 151 158 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.1 -54.2 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 12 12 13 12 13 12 700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 60 58 59 59 59 56 58 57 60 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 10 9 8 8 6 6 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 11 3 1 -15 -24 -36 -44 -42 -50 -35 -57 -56 -56 200 MB DIV 2 24 22 31 30 28 -4 -1 -3 -17 -27 -27 2 700-850 TADV 5 1 6 10 13 11 10 0 -3 -7 -7 -2 -11 LAND (KM) 1537 1443 1371 1344 1344 1205 992 649 336 277 228 249 139 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.2 17.0 18.2 19.0 19.7 20.2 21.0 21.8 22.6 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 42.5 44.4 46.1 47.8 49.6 52.8 56.3 59.7 63.2 66.7 70.3 73.7 77.1 STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 17 18 18 17 17 16 17 17 17 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 16 28 30 18 24 21 31 55 41 59 61 40 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 18. 22. 27. 31. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -8. -9. -13. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 13. 14. 19. 22. 29. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.8 42.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/17/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.69 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.15 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.35 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.73 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.24 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 123.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 14.2% 11.1% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 10.9% 5.0% 1.5% 1.3% 1.7% 4.7% 12.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% Consensus: 2.6% 8.5% 5.4% 2.9% 0.4% 0.6% 5.0% 4.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 08/17/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/17/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 32 34 35 38 39 44 47 54 59 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 32 33 36 37 42 45 52 57 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 27 28 31 32 37 40 47 52 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 19 20 23 24 29 32 39 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT