* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/17/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 35 35 37 39 41 44 50 54 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 35 35 37 39 41 44 50 54 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 28 29 30 29 26 25 25 25 27 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 7 10 17 23 24 15 16 10 11 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 4 13 10 8 0 0 -3 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 19 16 334 295 282 284 319 306 272 277 262 142 248 SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.5 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 127 129 131 132 134 136 140 147 152 156 156 155 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 129 132 135 136 135 137 144 149 152 152 148 154 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -53.5 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.8 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 10 11 12 12 12 12 13 12 700-500 MB RH 63 62 60 59 58 56 58 54 54 53 54 55 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 10 11 11 9 9 9 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 4 7 -3 -5 -15 -33 -45 -64 -57 -51 -38 -46 -40 200 MB DIV 4 11 30 23 39 27 12 -6 -1 -2 -21 -19 0 700-850 TADV 6 6 5 12 21 32 23 5 -9 -10 -12 1 -12 LAND (KM) 1702 1604 1540 1474 1455 1427 1210 833 499 268 208 209 102 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.7 15.3 16.0 16.9 18.8 19.9 20.5 20.6 20.8 21.2 21.7 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 39.8 41.4 43.1 45.0 46.9 50.6 54.3 58.1 61.6 65.2 68.7 72.0 75.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 19 20 20 19 18 17 16 16 16 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 17 11 21 28 14 11 18 43 38 59 43 45 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 30. 33. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 12. 14. 16. 19. 25. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.4 39.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/17/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.75 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.12 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.35 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.71 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.24 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 130.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 15.7% 12.4% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 12.3% 5.9% 2.0% 1.7% 1.0% 2.6% 8.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 9.4% 6.1% 3.3% 0.6% 0.3% 4.0% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 08/17/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/17/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 32 35 35 37 39 41 44 50 54 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 33 33 35 37 39 42 48 52 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 28 28 30 32 34 37 43 47 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 20 22 24 26 29 35 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT