* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/17/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 33 38 39 43 43 45 48 54 59 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 33 38 39 43 43 45 48 47 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 32 30 28 27 27 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 9 7 10 25 23 21 13 14 6 1 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 1 2 7 15 11 7 0 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 27 10 16 332 287 277 306 309 262 272 213 39 144 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.7 27.9 28.3 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 129 131 132 136 138 144 152 155 158 154 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 128 130 133 134 137 137 142 150 151 153 148 143 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -54.3 -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 9 11 11 12 12 13 12 13 700-500 MB RH 63 65 63 60 59 58 58 54 57 55 58 59 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 11 10 11 11 12 11 9 8 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 5 8 8 -5 -7 -25 -33 -53 -33 -29 0 3 22 200 MB DIV -2 10 6 27 29 28 15 -13 11 4 2 0 -6 700-850 TADV 6 3 1 3 14 29 25 18 -8 -14 -12 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 1792 1670 1595 1526 1466 1455 1269 934 554 205 33 0 -33 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 15.0 15.6 16.3 18.0 19.3 19.5 19.1 18.7 18.8 19.0 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 38.6 40.3 41.9 43.7 45.6 49.4 53.1 56.9 60.5 63.8 66.5 69.2 71.4 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 17 19 20 20 18 18 16 14 13 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 16 14 12 24 28 13 15 30 50 49 69 75 94 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 30. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 8. 13. 14. 18. 18. 20. 23. 29. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.3 38.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/17/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.80 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.12 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.34 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.69 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.21 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 118.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.82 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 14.6% 11.6% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 14.2% 6.8% 2.2% 1.4% 1.3% 3.5% 9.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 2.4% 9.7% 6.1% 3.2% 0.5% 0.5% 4.5% 3.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 08/17/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/17/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 31 33 38 39 43 43 45 48 47 37 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 31 36 37 41 41 43 46 45 35 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 31 35 35 37 40 39 29 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 23 27 27 29 32 31 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT