* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/16/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 33 35 40 41 45 46 49 51 57 62 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 33 35 40 41 45 46 49 51 55 43 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 34 32 30 30 30 32 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 9 8 8 17 21 18 13 13 7 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 0 1 7 15 9 9 -1 1 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 31 359 2 354 318 278 293 299 304 277 317 308 29 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.3 28.7 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 127 126 127 129 131 135 138 144 149 155 157 158 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 126 127 131 134 137 137 143 147 155 155 156 152 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -53.8 -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 7 8 10 11 12 12 13 12 13 700-500 MB RH 61 61 62 60 58 58 58 59 55 57 55 59 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 12 11 12 10 10 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 2 6 9 8 -1 -10 -28 -30 -30 -14 -14 10 11 200 MB DIV 0 6 21 27 33 32 16 3 -7 9 0 3 13 700-850 TADV 5 7 5 5 5 21 20 15 3 -4 -5 -1 -5 LAND (KM) 1946 1830 1732 1638 1546 1429 1281 1001 742 414 98 53 -52 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.6 15.0 15.5 16.0 17.1 18.0 18.0 17.7 17.4 17.7 18.1 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 36.8 38.4 40.0 41.9 43.9 47.9 51.7 55.4 58.7 61.9 65.0 68.0 71.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 17 19 20 20 17 17 15 15 14 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 8 13 13 12 24 12 19 43 55 51 40 65 87 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 30. 33. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. -3. -4. -8. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 10. 15. 16. 20. 21. 24. 26. 32. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.3 36.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/16/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.83 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.09 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.28 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.68 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.22 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 128.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 13.8% 10.9% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 11.4% 4.9% 1.5% 1.3% 1.8% 4.3% 8.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 2.0% 8.5% 5.3% 2.8% 0.4% 0.6% 4.8% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 08/16/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/16/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 33 35 40 41 45 46 49 51 55 43 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 33 38 39 43 44 47 49 53 41 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 27 32 33 37 38 41 43 47 35 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 23 27 28 31 33 37 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT