* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/16/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 32 35 39 42 41 40 42 44 49 52 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 32 35 39 42 41 40 42 44 49 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 34 33 29 27 27 28 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 7 8 8 14 27 24 22 13 16 9 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -2 0 6 11 11 6 3 -1 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 35 30 7 7 352 288 282 308 308 288 300 297 328 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.3 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 126 126 128 131 136 139 143 149 154 157 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 126 126 126 129 133 135 136 139 144 150 152 149 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -53.9 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 8 9 10 11 11 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 65 63 65 65 62 58 58 57 55 57 57 59 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 12 12 11 11 9 7 7 5 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -4 -1 0 0 -4 -21 -27 -48 -38 -45 -41 -48 200 MB DIV 13 0 0 15 19 25 8 9 -26 -3 -21 -16 -22 700-850 TADV 5 4 7 5 7 22 33 26 8 -3 -7 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 1906 1970 1869 1763 1669 1526 1458 1236 972 658 334 147 112 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.7 17.0 18.1 18.9 19.1 19.1 19.3 19.8 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 35.2 36.6 38.1 39.8 41.7 45.7 49.6 53.1 56.5 59.5 62.7 65.7 68.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 16 18 20 20 18 16 15 15 15 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 10 12 10 18 13 17 31 54 42 62 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 29. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 10. 14. 17. 16. 15. 17. 19. 24. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.1 35.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/16/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.82 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.06 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.31 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.66 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.19 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 113.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.82 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 13.0% 10.4% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 8.4% 3.6% 0.9% 0.0% 1.4% 3.5% 5.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 7.3% 4.7% 2.5% 0.0% 0.5% 4.6% 1.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 08/16/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/16/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 32 35 39 42 41 40 42 44 49 52 18HR AGO 25 24 26 30 33 37 40 39 38 40 42 47 50 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 28 32 35 34 33 35 37 42 45 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 22 25 24 23 25 27 32 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT