* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/16/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 42 45 44 43 42 46 47 51 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 42 45 44 43 42 46 47 51 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 32 34 38 41 40 37 33 32 32 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 6 4 7 11 22 29 23 14 14 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -1 2 5 11 9 8 0 2 -4 SHEAR DIR 45 36 35 12 347 308 285 310 318 307 304 310 290 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 27.2 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.5 28.9 29.0 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 126 126 125 130 133 137 139 145 152 153 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 124 124 126 126 133 134 134 135 140 147 147 152 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 10 11 12 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 69 66 64 66 65 59 60 58 56 54 60 60 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 11 10 10 8 8 7 7 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -12 -13 -6 -2 -10 -17 -38 -41 -54 -46 -56 -51 200 MB DIV 10 7 -9 0 8 22 20 6 6 -5 0 -12 -27 700-850 TADV 2 4 6 9 9 14 23 15 10 0 -7 -2 -4 LAND (KM) 1736 1862 2010 1916 1802 1611 1509 1361 1161 829 514 268 211 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.5 16.6 17.8 18.8 19.3 19.4 19.6 20.1 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 33.6 34.8 36.2 37.7 39.6 43.7 47.7 51.4 54.7 57.9 61.0 64.0 67.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 15 17 19 21 19 17 16 14 15 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 9 8 9 24 8 13 22 36 47 47 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 29. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 1. -0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -8. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 17. 20. 19. 18. 17. 21. 22. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.9 33.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/16/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.88 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.06 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.32 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.64 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.16 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 109.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.83 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 14.8% 12.0% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 9.0% 3.9% 0.7% 0.7% 1.7% 5.8% 8.1% Bayesian: 0.9% 1.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 8.6% 5.4% 2.8% 0.2% 0.6% 6.2% 2.7% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/16/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 37 42 45 44 43 42 46 47 51 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 34 39 42 41 40 39 43 44 48 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 33 36 35 34 33 37 38 42 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 24 27 26 25 24 28 29 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT