* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/16/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 45 49 49 47 46 47 49 54 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 45 49 49 47 46 47 49 54 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 34 39 43 44 41 36 33 32 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 10 9 4 9 16 30 21 23 11 11 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 1 2 3 10 13 7 2 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 40 31 29 38 10 334 292 284 294 309 282 302 349 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 127 125 125 128 131 135 135 137 140 147 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 125 125 125 124 129 130 132 127 127 131 141 147 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.6 -54.9 -55.1 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 9 10 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 71 71 67 66 66 62 61 60 59 57 58 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 12 11 12 12 11 10 10 9 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -10 -16 -15 -8 -7 -12 -31 -34 -46 -46 -71 -57 200 MB DIV 9 11 9 -9 0 21 29 6 37 -20 -10 -11 -1 700-850 TADV 0 0 3 6 12 11 18 24 27 17 13 26 14 LAND (KM) 1617 1744 1881 2012 1904 1690 1531 1476 1343 1218 1037 863 834 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.4 16.1 17.1 18.2 19.2 19.7 20.6 22.3 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 32.5 33.7 35.0 36.5 38.2 41.9 45.8 49.4 52.0 54.2 56.1 58.6 61.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 14 16 17 20 18 16 11 10 12 17 20 HEAT CONTENT 15 11 11 7 7 13 16 11 13 18 20 26 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 20. 24. 24. 22. 21. 22. 24. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.9 32.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/16/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.84 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.07 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.31 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.64 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.16 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 101.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.84 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 14.5% 11.6% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 10.0% 4.4% 0.9% 0.6% 2.3% 9.7% 11.2% Bayesian: 1.0% 2.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% Consensus: 2.8% 9.1% 5.5% 2.8% 0.2% 0.8% 7.6% 3.8% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/16/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 34 38 45 49 49 47 46 47 49 54 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 34 41 45 45 43 42 43 45 50 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 35 39 39 37 36 37 39 44 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 26 30 30 28 27 28 30 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT