* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/15/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 33 40 45 49 47 47 46 49 52 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 33 40 45 49 47 47 46 49 52 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 29 32 34 34 32 30 28 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 4 7 7 6 8 10 25 25 22 18 17 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 11 10 7 0 0 SHEAR DIR 41 30 43 35 48 347 311 280 301 314 340 310 331 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.6 27.1 27.5 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.5 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 127 126 125 123 129 133 133 136 138 144 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 125 124 124 124 123 130 132 127 127 128 136 141 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.7 -0.6 -0.9 -0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 6 6 7 8 10 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 69 69 70 67 66 64 59 59 55 55 54 55 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 12 12 12 11 10 8 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 16 3 -10 -17 -11 -8 -24 -26 -66 -57 -65 -64 -67 200 MB DIV 15 13 15 3 -7 -9 13 2 23 3 -36 -25 4 700-850 TADV -2 -1 3 6 8 9 13 25 16 17 5 6 16 LAND (KM) 1503 1608 1712 1860 2008 1843 1655 1578 1497 1319 1070 850 661 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.8 14.1 14.5 15.0 16.1 17.1 18.4 19.8 20.3 20.2 20.4 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 31.4 32.4 33.4 34.8 36.2 39.7 43.7 47.5 50.6 53.3 55.7 57.9 60.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 12 14 16 19 20 18 14 12 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 12 8 6 3 23 9 11 17 22 37 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 27. 30. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 8. 5. 2. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -6. -9. -11. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 25. 29. 27. 27. 26. 29. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.6 31.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/15/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.08 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.33 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.69 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.18 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 81.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.86 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 10.4% 4.7% 1.1% 0.6% 3.7% 10.2% 8.3% Bayesian: 0.7% 2.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 1.0% 4.2% 1.7% 0.4% 0.2% 1.3% 3.4% 2.8% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/15/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 25 29 33 40 45 49 47 47 46 49 52 18HR AGO 20 19 22 26 30 37 42 46 44 44 43 46 49 12HR AGO 20 17 16 20 24 31 36 40 38 38 37 40 43 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT