* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/15/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 35 43 48 49 48 54 60 63 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 35 43 48 49 48 54 60 63 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 27 31 34 36 36 36 36 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 5 7 6 4 4 11 24 14 21 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 2 3 0 3 2 4 9 5 0 2 SHEAR DIR 52 37 52 49 47 12 331 284 284 290 300 332 326 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.7 27.2 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.0 28.5 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 129 128 126 124 130 133 136 138 139 147 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 129 129 128 127 125 131 133 134 133 135 143 147 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -55.0 -54.9 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 -0.8 -0.1 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 9 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 71 73 71 71 68 64 62 62 63 61 58 56 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 8 8 9 9 10 8 8 7 9 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 21 9 -4 -15 -15 -2 -2 -11 -35 -50 -51 -66 -85 200 MB DIV 15 5 11 18 6 -17 -27 9 2 24 -23 1 -17 700-850 TADV 3 1 1 5 12 11 6 14 15 18 27 3 7 LAND (KM) 1290 1382 1518 1687 1868 1872 1595 1397 1322 1221 1137 878 675 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.8 14.2 14.6 14.9 15.6 15.7 16.1 16.9 18.2 19.9 21.9 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 29.4 30.3 31.6 33.2 34.9 38.8 42.8 46.5 49.9 52.6 55.0 58.2 62.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 15 16 18 19 19 17 16 14 17 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 18 13 10 3 17 26 29 22 22 30 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -4. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 23. 28. 29. 28. 34. 40. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.5 29.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/15/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.09 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 80.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.86 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 10.6% 4.6% 1.4% 1.1% 3.3% 7.0% 15.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 0.6% 3.8% 1.6% 0.5% 0.4% 1.2% 2.4% 5.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/15/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 25 28 35 43 48 49 48 54 60 63 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 26 33 41 46 47 46 52 58 61 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 28 36 41 42 41 47 53 56 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT