* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 06/18/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 41 47 46 47 43 39 39 38 41 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 41 47 46 47 43 33 35 35 37 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 41 40 37 33 27 28 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 5 8 7 15 19 25 27 28 12 11 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 6 4 2 6 7 7 1 0 5 1 0 SHEAR DIR 192 261 232 237 241 207 210 197 211 225 288 334 6 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.2 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.3 28.0 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 143 139 141 145 145 147 144 140 142 137 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 160 157 151 153 155 153 152 144 135 133 125 132 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.4 -53.7 -54.2 -53.5 -54.0 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 65 64 64 63 62 61 58 60 61 57 56 54 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 13 14 16 13 13 10 7 5 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 38 50 43 26 12 13 -6 14 -2 -20 -60 -96 -116 200 MB DIV 51 63 80 91 81 103 60 27 0 -9 -3 -27 -1 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -6 -5 -5 4 11 10 5 -1 0 -1 -5 LAND (KM) 533 433 352 331 371 274 287 279 73 -44 93 103 79 LAT (DEG N) 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.6 9.2 11.1 13.3 15.6 17.5 19.4 20.9 22.0 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 47.4 49.4 51.4 53.3 55.2 58.5 61.8 65.1 68.4 71.3 73.8 75.8 77.7 STM SPEED (KT) 20 20 20 20 19 19 20 19 18 15 12 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 39 39 45 29 35 39 47 32 55 60 18 18 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. -0. -2. -7. -11. -14. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 16. 17. 13. 9. 9. 8. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 7.0 47.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 06/18/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.93 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.24 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.42 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.88 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.49 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 126.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 40.7% 22.0% 9.7% 8.2% 14.8% 17.9% 18.9% Logistic: 6.6% 39.2% 21.2% 9.6% 9.0% 11.7% 16.4% 17.7% Bayesian: 0.8% 3.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.7% 1.3% Consensus: 5.1% 27.9% 14.6% 6.4% 5.8% 8.9% 11.7% 12.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 06/18/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 06/18/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 41 47 46 47 43 33 35 35 37 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 38 44 43 44 40 30 32 32 34 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 39 38 39 35 25 27 27 29 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 30 29 30 26 16 18 18 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT