* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 06/18/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 40 42 45 43 42 42 45 49 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 40 42 45 43 42 32 38 41 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 32 31 28 25 25 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 5 5 5 9 20 21 26 22 21 16 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 4 6 4 4 7 4 3 0 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 280 273 299 249 252 222 212 200 206 215 240 294 317 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 27.9 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 144 144 139 144 145 147 147 143 142 141 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 160 159 159 151 156 154 154 148 140 136 131 128 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -54.4 -53.8 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 10 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 69 67 67 66 66 62 60 62 62 60 59 55 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 12 12 12 15 14 13 10 8 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 40 50 44 26 16 -1 16 4 6 -12 -57 -77 200 MB DIV 45 51 53 81 91 68 81 49 11 -1 5 5 -16 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -6 -6 -4 1 13 17 8 1 0 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 664 496 405 333 319 362 188 433 155 10 -31 17 7 LAT (DEG N) 6.2 6.6 7.1 7.7 8.4 10.2 12.3 14.6 16.5 18.2 19.6 20.8 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 45.5 47.5 49.3 51.2 53.0 56.6 60.2 63.6 66.9 70.0 72.6 75.0 76.9 STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 19 19 20 20 21 20 18 16 14 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 54 41 41 49 31 42 34 29 60 24 69 9 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 32. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 2. 0. -4. -8. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 15. 17. 20. 18. 17. 17. 20. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 6.2 45.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 06/18/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.96 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 43.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.28 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.45 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.94 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.44 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 82.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.85 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 25.2% 14.9% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 17.3% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 20.2% 8.5% 1.8% 1.0% 4.4% 11.0% 16.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% Consensus: 3.3% 15.5% 7.9% 3.4% 0.3% 1.5% 9.5% 5.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 06/18/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 06/18/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 32 40 42 45 43 42 32 38 41 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 30 38 40 43 41 40 30 36 39 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 34 36 39 37 36 26 32 35 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 26 28 31 29 28 18 24 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT