* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 06/18/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 43 47 52 52 50 50 52 53 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 43 47 52 52 50 50 47 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 35 37 37 35 32 29 28 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 0 2 2 4 4 9 14 17 22 23 21 17 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 8 5 9 0 6 6 8 4 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 345 34 317 317 278 262 207 215 201 205 211 233 259 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.0 28.4 28.3 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 144 143 143 141 146 144 147 147 146 147 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 158 160 159 160 155 157 151 150 147 144 143 136 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -54.3 -53.7 -54.2 -53.6 -54.2 -53.5 -53.5 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 9 9 8 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 69 70 68 66 66 61 59 61 65 66 63 61 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 11 12 12 12 15 14 14 12 10 7 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 42 33 47 39 15 1 0 10 14 13 -13 -48 200 MB DIV 12 44 54 54 64 52 74 59 64 23 17 -5 -22 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -6 -8 -9 -6 5 9 10 3 -1 1 -2 LAND (KM) 894 749 581 481 417 413 288 255 396 244 73 53 -34 LAT (DEG N) 5.8 6.0 6.5 7.2 8.0 9.5 11.3 13.0 14.5 15.9 17.4 18.9 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 43.0 44.6 46.5 48.3 50.3 54.5 58.4 62.1 65.2 67.9 70.7 73.4 75.8 STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 19 20 22 22 20 19 16 15 15 15 12 HEAT CONTENT 47 56 46 38 41 32 41 39 34 55 62 28 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 33. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 4. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 3. 7. 6. 6. 3. -1. -5. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 18. 22. 27. 27. 25. 25. 27. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 5.8 43.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 06/18/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.6 30.1 to 2.9 1.00 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 45.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.29 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.39 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.95 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.36 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 73.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.86 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 20.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 34.4% 18.6% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 18.3% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 15.9% 7.0% 1.7% 1.2% 2.8% 8.4% 17.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 3.5% 16.9% 8.6% 3.7% 0.4% 1.0% 8.9% 5.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 06/18/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 06/18/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 34 43 47 52 52 50 50 47 39 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 41 45 50 50 48 48 45 37 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 36 40 45 45 43 43 40 32 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 27 31 36 36 34 34 31 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT