* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 06/17/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 29 32 39 47 50 53 51 52 52 54 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 29 32 39 47 50 53 51 52 52 54 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 30 34 37 37 37 34 31 28 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 1 0 3 5 8 10 19 17 25 25 19 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 10 9 7 3 1 6 7 8 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 116 308 345 280 299 274 241 217 195 199 203 218 235 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.3 27.9 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 144 143 145 139 143 143 142 148 145 146 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 158 160 160 161 153 155 153 147 151 145 145 145 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -54.2 -53.9 -54.2 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -53.6 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 8 10 9 10 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 66 69 71 68 66 66 62 61 65 67 67 63 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 10 11 11 13 14 13 13 11 9 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 43 42 37 30 47 26 15 -2 13 11 16 10 -20 200 MB DIV -10 7 49 55 47 48 55 95 83 45 0 11 -6 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -5 -9 -6 0 12 8 10 2 0 1 LAND (KM) 1072 909 746 568 454 317 321 86 266 367 223 78 100 LAT (DEG N) 5.8 5.9 6.2 6.6 7.2 8.3 9.8 11.4 13.1 14.6 16.1 17.4 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 41.2 42.9 44.7 46.7 48.7 52.8 56.7 60.5 64.0 67.0 70.0 72.9 75.8 STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 19 20 21 21 20 20 17 16 16 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 41 45 53 44 38 33 40 18 19 32 57 37 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 13.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 33. 36. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 5. 3. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 7. 6. 6. 2. -1. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 2. 4. 7. 14. 22. 25. 28. 26. 27. 27. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 5.8 41.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 06/17/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 6.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.3 30.1 to 2.9 1.00 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 44.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.28 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.40 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.96 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.28 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 70.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.87 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 35.3% 20.9% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18.8% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 21.8% 11.6% 3.9% 3.2% 2.9% 5.8% 18.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 4.1% 19.2% 10.9% 4.6% 1.1% 1.0% 8.2% 6.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 06/17/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 06/17/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 29 32 39 47 50 53 51 52 52 54 18HR AGO 25 24 25 28 31 38 46 49 52 50 51 51 53 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 34 42 45 48 46 47 47 49 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 33 36 39 37 38 38 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT