* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 06/17/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 31 34 40 49 55 57 59 58 60 62 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 31 34 40 49 55 57 59 58 60 62 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 32 37 40 42 42 41 38 34 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 1 2 2 4 6 11 13 15 27 27 21 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 8 9 6 0 7 10 10 1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 62 350 342 21 306 279 277 214 205 186 195 195 197 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.0 28.3 27.9 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 144 144 144 144 140 144 138 146 148 144 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 161 160 161 161 160 152 157 145 150 151 144 146 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -53.8 -54.2 -53.6 -54.3 -53.7 -54.3 -53.6 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 8 9 10 9 9 8 10 10 700-500 MB RH 65 66 69 71 70 69 66 65 67 69 71 64 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 11 12 11 13 13 13 13 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 28 38 45 41 36 42 12 10 8 21 28 20 1 200 MB DIV -6 3 22 55 57 62 34 88 86 103 3 -10 -4 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -4 -5 -6 -5 8 7 16 2 -1 3 LAND (KM) 1188 992 815 629 455 263 278 190 122 334 322 88 21 LAT (DEG N) 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.5 7.3 8.4 10.0 11.8 13.6 15.2 16.9 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 40.1 42.1 44.0 45.9 47.9 51.8 55.6 59.2 62.8 65.8 68.7 71.8 74.7 STM SPEED (KT) 20 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 18 16 17 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 42 42 50 51 41 44 29 18 10 27 41 39 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 33. 36. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 4. 3. 3. -2. -5. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 6. 9. 15. 24. 30. 32. 34. 33. 35. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 5.9 40.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 06/17/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.5 30.1 to 2.9 1.00 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 45.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.29 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.43 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.97 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.26 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 80.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.86 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 8.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 27.0% 15.4% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 18.7% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 19.4% 9.8% 2.7% 1.8% 4.5% 6.0% 15.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 15.6% 8.4% 3.9% 0.6% 1.5% 8.2% 5.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 06/17/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 06/17/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 31 34 40 49 55 57 59 58 60 62 18HR AGO 25 24 25 30 33 39 48 54 56 58 57 59 61 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 29 35 44 50 52 54 53 55 57 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 33 39 41 43 42 44 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT