* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 06/17/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 29 34 41 48 57 58 61 59 60 58 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 29 34 41 48 57 51 59 57 58 56 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 37 41 44 39 43 40 36 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 3 1 1 5 10 5 14 15 28 24 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 3 8 7 2 6 9 10 6 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 79 40 17 355 296 272 270 233 217 175 197 202 209 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.0 28.1 27.7 27.8 28.6 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 144 143 143 146 140 141 136 137 148 145 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 157 161 161 161 165 154 151 143 141 151 146 143 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -53.7 -54.2 -53.7 -54.1 -53.5 -54.0 -53.7 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 10 9 10 8 9 10 700-500 MB RH 67 66 66 68 70 68 68 66 68 70 72 69 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 8 11 12 13 15 13 14 11 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 27 27 28 35 32 46 23 21 4 13 18 29 16 200 MB DIV 33 6 12 22 42 55 64 66 111 84 38 8 10 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -2 -4 -8 -6 0 9 12 13 6 2 LAND (KM) 1427 1247 1066 872 669 377 239 151 -10 185 361 215 13 LAT (DEG N) 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 7.4 7.9 8.9 10.4 12.3 14.3 16.3 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 37.8 39.6 41.5 43.6 45.7 50.1 54.3 58.1 61.4 64.5 67.1 69.9 72.7 STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 20 21 21 22 20 18 18 17 16 17 15 HEAT CONTENT 42 42 37 42 47 46 18 23 5 8 31 61 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 11. 19. 24. 28. 33. 36. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 7. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 4. 3. -1. -4. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 9. 16. 23. 32. 33. 36. 34. 35. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 5.9 37.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 06/17/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.98 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 42.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.27 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.31 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.96 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.25 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 94.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.84 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 22.8% 15.1% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 18.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 14.4% 6.6% 1.7% 1.2% 3.3% 4.8% 13.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 12.4% 7.2% 3.7% 0.4% 1.1% 7.6% 4.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 06/17/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 06/17/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 29 34 41 48 57 51 59 57 58 56 18HR AGO 25 24 25 28 33 40 47 56 50 58 56 57 55 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 29 36 43 52 46 54 52 53 51 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 27 34 43 37 45 43 44 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT