* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 06/17/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 35 42 49 55 59 60 61 60 61 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 35 42 49 55 59 60 61 60 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 39 45 48 50 49 46 43 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 4 5 4 5 11 18 9 12 21 21 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 3 4 5 0 -5 2 7 10 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 93 81 14 13 45 322 278 290 247 219 191 208 215 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.0 28.1 27.9 28.2 28.6 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 140 142 142 144 145 139 141 138 142 148 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 153 156 160 160 159 157 150 151 147 148 152 143 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -54.4 -53.8 -54.4 -53.7 -54.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 7 7 6 7 8 9 9 9 7 9 700-500 MB RH 69 66 66 66 68 68 72 70 68 68 69 70 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 9 10 11 12 12 12 12 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 30 24 25 26 34 28 43 20 14 1 17 19 21 200 MB DIV 62 45 30 31 43 20 49 36 58 93 99 15 9 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 -2 -2 -3 -2 5 5 8 4 1 LAND (KM) 1648 1484 1289 1074 853 446 215 176 163 12 266 325 177 LAT (DEG N) 6.2 6.6 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.7 7.4 8.9 10.9 13.1 15.0 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 35.8 37.5 39.5 41.7 43.9 48.1 51.6 54.9 57.9 61.1 64.1 67.2 70.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 19 21 22 22 19 16 17 18 19 18 17 15 HEAT CONTENT 32 35 34 33 40 41 39 16 26 4 19 36 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 33. 36. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -1. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -4. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 17. 24. 30. 34. 35. 36. 35. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 6.2 35.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 06/17/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.91 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.22 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.39 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.92 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.34 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 103.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.83 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 7.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 28.4% 15.5% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 18.7% 0.0% Logistic: 6.2% 24.5% 13.2% 4.7% 4.1% 4.8% 7.1% 20.6% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 17.8% 9.7% 4.6% 1.4% 1.6% 8.6% 6.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 06/17/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 06/17/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 35 42 49 55 59 60 61 60 61 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 32 39 46 52 56 57 58 57 58 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 27 34 41 47 51 52 53 52 53 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 26 33 39 43 44 45 44 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT