* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 06/16/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 39 46 53 59 61 61 63 63 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 39 46 53 59 61 61 63 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 38 41 45 46 44 42 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 7 9 9 6 6 15 11 18 12 24 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 2 4 6 4 0 0 6 13 4 0 SHEAR DIR 75 61 42 18 14 25 303 280 276 228 183 211 212 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.1 28.2 27.9 27.9 28.5 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 146 145 146 144 145 143 144 139 138 146 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 155 160 160 162 159 162 161 160 152 145 151 144 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -53.7 -54.1 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 6 6 7 10 9 10 8 9 700-500 MB RH 72 73 72 72 71 74 71 70 64 69 73 75 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 11 10 10 11 11 12 12 10 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 30 24 22 19 26 17 34 22 18 1 15 22 25 200 MB DIV 46 48 49 28 26 24 22 41 66 106 105 60 10 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -6 -4 3 0 13 5 LAND (KM) 1766 1627 1479 1301 1130 809 478 300 289 0 208 277 244 LAT (DEG N) 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.8 6.7 7.8 9.3 10.7 12.4 13.9 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 34.4 35.7 37.1 38.8 40.5 43.9 47.8 52.1 56.6 61.0 64.8 68.1 71.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 15 17 17 18 21 23 23 22 19 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 33 36 40 45 44 54 40 41 36 6 9 32 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 37. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. -1. -4. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 21. 28. 34. 36. 36. 38. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 5.0 34.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 06/16/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.79 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 39.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.25 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.41 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.94 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.33 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 77.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.86 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 19.4% 14.5% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 17.7% 0.0% Logistic: 6.0% 35.0% 20.9% 9.2% 4.9% 13.4% 25.1% 37.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 2.4% Consensus: 4.1% 18.4% 11.9% 6.0% 1.6% 4.5% 14.3% 13.2% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 06/16/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 32 39 46 53 59 61 61 63 63 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 37 44 51 57 59 59 61 61 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 32 39 46 52 54 54 56 56 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 31 38 44 46 46 48 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT