* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 06/16/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 33 41 50 59 67 71 69 72 72 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 33 41 50 59 67 71 69 72 72 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 26 31 36 41 47 51 52 50 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 6 6 7 8 8 6 12 14 15 22 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 1 3 3 2 -2 1 9 10 3 SHEAR DIR 91 66 60 47 15 24 335 314 298 231 228 201 229 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.0 28.3 27.9 28.2 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 145 145 145 144 145 147 141 145 139 142 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 155 158 160 160 159 160 164 156 160 149 148 150 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.5 -53.9 -54.6 -53.7 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 73 72 72 73 70 74 72 71 69 66 67 70 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 12 13 10 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 28 27 24 19 18 32 19 38 15 10 4 19 20 200 MB DIV 50 37 47 44 19 30 -1 28 55 99 93 83 27 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 0 -2 -2 -4 -5 3 0 8 3 LAND (KM) 1886 1747 1587 1407 1231 883 545 307 253 241 88 257 234 LAT (DEG N) 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.6 8.0 9.8 11.5 12.9 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 33.3 34.6 36.1 37.8 39.5 43.0 46.5 50.1 54.0 58.0 62.2 65.8 69.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 16 17 17 18 18 19 22 22 21 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 31 33 37 43 46 49 54 50 20 34 11 20 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 11. 19. 25. 30. 36. 40. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 2. 1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 30. 39. 47. 51. 50. 52. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 5.0 33.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 06/16/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 38.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.24 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.98 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 64.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.87 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.7% 31.6% 17.0% 5.9% 2.8% 18.5% 32.9% 38.6% Bayesian: 0.7% 2.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 2.5% 11.4% 5.8% 2.0% 0.9% 6.2% 11.0% 13.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 06/16/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 25 29 33 41 50 59 67 71 69 72 72 18HR AGO 20 19 22 26 30 38 47 56 64 68 66 69 69 12HR AGO 20 17 16 20 24 32 41 50 58 62 60 63 63 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT