* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922016 09/11/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 21 22 25 30 32 37 38 44 47 51 V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 21 22 25 30 32 37 38 44 47 51 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 18 18 18 19 20 20 21 21 22 23 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 11 8 17 16 20 19 15 14 10 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 0 -8 -4 0 -3 2 1 3 -1 4 -2 SHEAR DIR 321 320 319 273 267 285 265 303 282 309 307 323 297 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.8 30.3 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.5 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 164 163 161 157 163 169 169 169 169 170 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 145 144 143 141 137 143 153 154 155 152 155 151 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 11 9 11 700-500 MB RH 65 64 63 65 65 66 66 62 63 60 62 62 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 6 6 5 5 4 5 3 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -12 -4 12 16 4 28 11 18 0 8 -7 3 200 MB DIV 18 15 23 14 26 -15 11 -10 0 -15 9 -20 26 700-850 TADV -6 -9 -2 0 -4 -2 0 -2 4 -1 1 0 2 LAND (KM) 130 128 150 167 171 131 178 262 378 433 404 441 340 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 23.5 23.3 23.0 22.9 22.7 23.2 23.9 24.8 25.2 25.5 25.5 26.0 LONG(DEG W) 84.2 84.8 85.4 85.8 86.3 87.1 87.9 88.6 89.3 90.3 91.4 92.7 93.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 66 50 41 39 38 34 33 39 45 69 74 73 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 36. 40. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 3. 1. -2. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -5. -4. -7. -7. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 12. 17. 18. 24. 27. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 23.8 84.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922016 INVEST 09/11/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 46.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.58 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.21 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.86 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 13.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 64.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 5.8% 2.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 5.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 1.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922016 INVEST 09/11/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922016 INVEST 09/11/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 19 19 21 22 25 30 32 37 38 44 47 51 18HR AGO 20 19 19 21 22 25 30 32 37 38 44 47 51 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 19 22 27 29 34 35 41 44 48 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT