* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922016 09/10/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 32 35 35 37 37 43 46 47 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 32 35 35 37 37 43 46 47 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 28 28 28 28 30 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 18 17 13 14 24 21 28 16 18 10 16 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 2 -1 -7 0 -2 0 -1 1 0 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 335 319 311 300 261 272 265 283 291 295 310 297 289 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.4 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 162 163 163 163 167 169 169 170 170 170 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 139 140 142 142 141 145 148 150 149 148 155 149 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 65 65 62 62 65 63 65 63 62 59 60 58 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 3 5 4 5 4 4 3 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -20 -23 -10 8 4 14 5 7 -12 -3 -14 -9 200 MB DIV 16 26 15 16 8 15 -5 4 0 2 -16 10 10 700-850 TADV -2 -6 -8 -2 0 -5 3 1 2 -1 5 2 3 LAND (KM) 175 191 201 206 228 269 328 411 336 278 275 334 240 LAT (DEG N) 24.4 24.4 24.3 24.1 24.0 23.9 24.5 25.3 26.1 26.6 26.7 26.5 26.7 LONG(DEG W) 83.6 84.2 84.7 85.2 85.7 86.6 87.3 87.9 88.8 89.9 91.5 93.2 94.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 56 48 43 40 36 43 48 35 44 70 76 58 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 33. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -5. -7. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 10. 12. 12. 18. 21. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 24.4 83.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922016 INVEST 09/10/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.48 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 44.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.29 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.86 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.45 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.19 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.79 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 28.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.71 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 73.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.86 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 17.1% 11.1% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.7% Logistic: 2.3% 11.2% 4.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.3% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 9.6% 5.3% 3.6% 0.0% 0.1% 4.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922016 INVEST 09/10/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922016 INVEST 09/10/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 29 32 35 35 37 37 43 46 47 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 31 34 34 36 36 42 45 46 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 27 30 30 32 32 38 41 42 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 23 23 25 25 31 34 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT