* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922016 09/10/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 27 29 34 36 41 39 43 45 50 52 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 27 29 34 36 41 39 43 45 50 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 29 29 29 29 30 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 18 18 17 13 23 21 25 20 16 16 14 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -2 0 -2 -3 -1 -2 0 0 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 339 336 314 304 296 256 271 259 291 277 314 293 314 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.3 30.4 30.2 30.1 30.4 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 160 162 164 165 167 169 170 170 170 170 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 139 139 141 142 143 145 150 153 148 149 155 150 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.3 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 8 700-500 MB RH 62 64 63 61 61 64 64 65 61 59 57 58 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 3 3 5 3 5 3 4 3 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -22 -25 -27 -23 15 -1 22 -7 -4 -23 -3 -24 200 MB DIV 19 21 23 19 5 25 -3 8 -12 -1 -4 -7 -8 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -6 -8 -2 -4 0 2 -1 5 -2 5 0 LAND (KM) 173 201 219 230 242 300 316 389 368 300 299 337 203 LAT (DEG N) 24.5 24.6 24.6 24.5 24.3 24.2 24.4 25.1 25.8 26.4 26.5 26.4 26.2 LONG(DEG W) 83.0 83.8 84.4 84.9 85.5 86.5 87.4 88.1 88.9 90.0 91.6 93.3 95.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 49 47 41 39 36 40 50 38 45 75 74 53 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 33. 36. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -4. -7. -9. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -2. -5. -4. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 2. 4. 9. 11. 16. 14. 18. 20. 25. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 24.5 83.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922016 INVEST 09/10/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.40 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 42.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.27 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.34 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.45 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.20 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.79 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 34.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.66 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 91.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 13.2% 8.2% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% Logistic: 1.8% 8.2% 3.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.7% 3.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 7.2% 3.8% 2.3% 0.0% 0.2% 4.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922016 INVEST 09/10/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922016 INVEST 09/10/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 27 29 34 36 41 39 43 45 50 52 18HR AGO 25 24 26 26 28 33 35 40 38 42 44 49 51 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 23 28 30 35 33 37 39 44 46 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 24 29 27 31 33 38 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT