* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922016 09/10/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 26 26 32 35 39 42 44 48 52 54 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 26 26 32 35 39 42 44 48 52 54 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 23 24 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 21 17 16 15 12 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -5 -2 1 -6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 328 341 334 318 305 273 273 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 160 162 164 164 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 141 138 140 142 145 144 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 62 64 64 62 64 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -31 -18 -12 -17 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 18 19 20 9 12 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -5 -3 -7 -7 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 112 125 132 135 147 209 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 6 6 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 52 60 68 60 47 34 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -3. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 1. 7. 10. 14. 17. 19. 23. 27. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 24.1 82.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922016 INVEST 09/10/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.42 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 57.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.37 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.71 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.46 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.20 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.79 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 22.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.77 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 88.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 15.2% 9.8% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 7.3% 2.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.5% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 7.6% 4.2% 2.9% 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922016 INVEST 09/10/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922016 INVEST 09/10/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 25 26 26 32 35 39 42 44 48 52 54 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 26 32 35 39 42 44 48 52 54 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 28 31 35 38 40 44 48 50 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 21 24 28 31 33 37 41 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT