* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922016 09/10/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 38 40 45 45 47 48 49 52 53 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 38 40 45 45 47 48 49 52 53 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 34 36 39 41 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 21 20 18 15 12 20 19 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 -6 -3 -2 -3 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 322 324 334 331 315 296 255 275 261 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 159 160 162 163 163 162 162 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 143 141 140 140 140 143 142 139 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -52.8 -53.2 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 60 61 63 63 61 64 65 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 4 5 4 6 4 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -34 -35 -18 -8 -5 20 8 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 20 18 21 26 17 26 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -12 -7 -4 -8 -2 -4 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 107 115 143 145 154 170 244 230 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 49 57 63 55 40 33 45 41 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -1. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 15. 15. 17. 18. 19. 22. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 24.2 81.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922016 INVEST 09/10/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.38 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 51.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.33 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.55 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.41 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.23 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.74 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 107.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.83 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 15.8% 10.3% 8.6% 6.0% 8.1% 13.4% Logistic: 1.2% 6.9% 2.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.9% 6.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 3.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 8.7% 4.4% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% 6.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922016 INVEST 09/10/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922016 INVEST 09/10/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 38 40 45 45 47 48 49 52 53 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 36 38 43 43 45 46 47 50 51 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 33 38 38 40 41 42 45 46 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 25 30 30 32 33 34 37 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT