* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922016 09/09/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 41 43 49 53 56 54 56 56 59 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 41 43 49 53 56 54 56 56 59 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 37 38 40 42 46 50 52 52 54 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 23 22 19 14 7 15 12 23 15 20 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -2 -6 0 -7 -1 -5 -2 -4 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 323 320 326 334 328 320 307 288 264 277 280 276 286 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.8 30.3 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 160 160 160 164 165 163 159 160 164 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 141 141 141 141 145 146 143 139 140 143 150 154 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 59 61 59 60 62 60 64 66 67 67 67 65 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 6 5 4 5 4 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -24 -27 -30 -11 -4 20 21 24 25 22 10 19 200 MB DIV 29 45 27 14 12 -4 19 10 17 11 2 5 7 700-850 TADV -3 -11 -12 -6 -4 -8 0 -6 1 -2 2 0 1 LAND (KM) 123 104 100 78 79 28 42 84 123 144 236 311 383 LAT (DEG N) 24.1 24.2 24.1 23.9 23.7 23.0 22.5 22.2 22.4 22.8 23.7 24.4 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 80.2 80.8 81.5 82.1 82.7 83.7 84.7 85.5 86.3 86.9 87.6 88.2 89.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 4 5 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 48 51 41 51 57 37 40 43 35 35 41 43 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 34.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 22. 25. 29. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 19. 23. 26. 24. 26. 26. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 24.1 80.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922016 INVEST 09/09/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.31 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 49.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.32 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.08 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.48 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.24 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.75 1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 122.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 13.8% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 13.6% Logistic: 2.0% 9.7% 3.9% 0.8% 0.0% 2.0% 11.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 4.6% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 9.4% 4.6% 0.3% 0.0% 3.0% 8.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922016 INVEST 09/09/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922016 INVEST 09/09/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 37 41 43 49 53 56 54 56 56 59 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 37 39 45 49 52 50 52 52 55 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 32 34 40 44 47 45 47 47 50 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 26 32 36 39 37 39 39 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT