* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922016 09/09/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 39 43 50 51 53 53 56 57 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 39 33 37 37 40 40 42 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 31 28 31 34 37 38 39 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 19 20 23 21 15 9 12 12 19 19 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 0 -3 -5 -2 -6 -4 -4 -2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 316 320 315 320 328 319 327 271 292 260 282 262 291 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.6 30.1 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 166 164 162 160 160 162 164 168 163 160 160 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 143 142 140 140 142 145 149 145 141 141 146 153 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -53.2 -53.4 -52.6 -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 58 59 60 60 60 62 62 66 65 68 63 64 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 4 5 4 4 6 4 6 4 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -22 -20 -19 -21 10 3 21 11 26 7 21 1 200 MB DIV 26 33 47 20 6 13 -6 11 12 16 -10 -8 -7 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -9 -9 -5 -8 -2 -7 -1 0 -2 1 -1 LAND (KM) 143 132 113 87 55 10 -24 10 79 132 173 266 310 LAT (DEG N) 24.0 24.2 24.2 23.9 23.7 23.1 22.5 22.1 22.1 22.6 23.1 24.0 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 79.4 79.9 80.5 81.1 81.6 82.5 83.4 84.4 85.5 86.5 87.3 88.0 88.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 49 48 49 51 49 37 126 131 44 35 36 41 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 35.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. 0. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 18. 25. 26. 28. 28. 31. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 24.0 79.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922016 INVEST 09/09/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.28 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 49.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.32 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 35.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.05 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.50 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.24 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.80 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 7.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 112.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.83 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.6% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% Logistic: 2.7% 14.3% 6.5% 1.9% 0.0% 2.6% 7.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 10.0% 4.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.9% 6.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922016 INVEST 09/09/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922016 INVEST 09/09/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 33 39 33 37 37 40 40 42 44 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 36 30 34 34 37 37 39 41 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 31 25 29 29 32 32 34 36 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 17 21 21 24 24 26 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT