* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922016 09/06/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 31 33 38 46 50 52 55 58 62 62 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 31 33 37 45 50 51 54 57 61 61 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 29 30 34 37 38 37 37 37 38 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 3 1 6 9 12 18 19 17 14 22 20 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -2 1 0 1 1 -2 -1 -5 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 189 196 117 151 218 232 230 224 239 233 264 265 269 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 30.1 30.1 30.2 29.9 29.8 30.1 30.2 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 160 162 164 173 173 172 168 166 170 169 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 166 162 160 161 163 170 168 167 158 152 151 147 137 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 63 61 61 63 62 64 63 63 59 58 52 55 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 5 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 45 46 53 61 53 26 16 4 -5 -27 -65 -56 -54 200 MB DIV 28 21 51 59 46 65 34 18 6 9 12 32 24 700-850 TADV 9 6 0 0 3 2 13 14 9 6 12 0 0 LAND (KM) 315 244 244 193 128 11 256 177 34 258 412 312 253 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.8 18.1 19.2 20.7 22.1 23.8 25.3 26.4 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 70.0 71.5 72.9 74.2 75.6 78.1 80.5 82.8 84.9 86.6 87.7 88.4 88.6 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 14 14 13 13 12 12 11 8 5 1 HEAT CONTENT 68 60 62 91 92 89 87 67 23 33 35 39 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 717 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 24. 28. 33. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 3. 8. 16. 21. 22. 25. 28. 32. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.1 70.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922016 INVEST 09/06/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 6.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.90 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 74.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.48 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.58 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.67 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.31 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.94 2.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 144.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 41.2% 24.3% 12.2% 9.8% 10.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 18.2% 8.1% 2.0% 0.0% 3.8% 4.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 20.0% 10.8% 4.7% 3.3% 4.8% 1.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922016 INVEST 09/06/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922016 INVEST 09/06/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 29 31 33 37 45 50 51 54 57 61 61 18HR AGO 30 29 29 31 33 37 45 50 51 54 57 61 61 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 34 42 47 48 51 54 58 58 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 34 39 40 43 46 50 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT