* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922016 09/05/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 38 41 43 47 48 50 54 56 58 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 36 38 37 42 46 46 47 51 53 55 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 37 38 40 40 39 37 34 33 32 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 10 9 8 18 23 24 24 24 21 28 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 0 -2 -2 4 1 1 0 -2 -3 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 198 210 204 257 260 236 229 230 225 243 233 241 227 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.9 30.4 30.2 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 167 165 163 161 162 170 172 172 168 166 166 164 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 175 171 166 163 163 169 172 167 158 153 150 144 139 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 12 12 11 10 10 10 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 60 60 60 59 60 61 63 62 62 56 56 49 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 28 37 39 41 48 34 22 15 12 -1 -28 -79 -31 200 MB DIV 14 16 26 28 66 52 67 35 14 23 25 -2 52 700-850 TADV 3 6 7 1 -5 15 12 12 13 9 6 10 3 LAND (KM) 345 334 252 192 157 -10 117 132 11 165 405 257 130 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.1 15.5 16.0 16.6 17.9 19.6 20.8 22.4 23.9 25.7 27.5 29.0 LONG(DEG W) 67.0 68.9 70.5 72.1 73.6 76.5 78.8 80.9 83.0 84.8 86.3 87.4 87.9 STM SPEED (KT) 20 17 16 16 15 15 12 12 12 11 11 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 68 73 69 64 80 19 61 53 23 43 24 55 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 783 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 13. 15. 19. 21. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.8 67.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922016 INVEST 09/05/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 6.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.79 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 70.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.46 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.46 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.64 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.26 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.94 2.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 183.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 36.8% 20.2% 11.8% 9.0% 10.1% 19.8% Logistic: 1.5% 12.1% 5.0% 0.8% 0.0% 2.5% 5.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 16.9% 8.5% 4.2% 3.0% 4.2% 8.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922016 INVEST 09/05/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922016 INVEST 09/05/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 36 38 37 42 46 46 47 51 53 55 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 37 36 41 45 45 46 50 52 54 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 33 38 42 42 43 47 49 51 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 26 31 35 35 36 40 42 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT