* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922016 09/05/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 35 37 40 42 47 47 49 54 57 59 V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 35 37 40 41 46 47 46 50 54 47 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 36 37 39 40 40 38 35 33 33 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 9 12 8 13 22 24 22 24 19 24 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 1 1 0 -2 1 5 0 0 -1 -3 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 234 193 179 190 249 223 243 217 224 223 224 213 216 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.7 30.2 30.4 30.0 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 164 162 160 166 173 172 171 163 165 165 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 175 175 170 165 162 166 171 171 163 152 152 149 142 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 11 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 6 700-500 MB RH 58 61 61 60 58 60 61 63 60 58 53 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 8 7 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 29 30 41 41 38 48 24 20 11 1 -40 -78 -70 200 MB DIV 7 19 18 23 26 59 57 43 26 22 5 0 38 700-850 TADV 5 4 6 5 2 3 12 8 13 13 12 14 13 LAND (KM) 396 359 336 248 192 118 54 114 5 106 322 230 -31 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.7 15.1 15.5 16.0 17.3 18.9 20.4 22.0 23.8 25.7 28.1 30.7 LONG(DEG W) 65.2 67.3 69.1 70.6 72.1 74.9 77.4 79.4 81.5 83.4 85.4 86.9 87.6 STM SPEED (KT) 21 19 16 15 15 15 13 12 13 13 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 84 70 72 68 64 91 77 52 47 70 24 63 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 22 CX,CY: -21/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 850 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 27. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 12. 13. 14. 19. 22. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.5 65.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922016 INVEST 09/05/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.82 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 71.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.46 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.46 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.55 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.96 2.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 193.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.75 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.8 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 32.6% 17.1% 11.6% 8.8% 10.2% 20.5% Logistic: 2.0% 11.8% 5.2% 1.1% 0.0% 1.8% 4.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 15.4% 7.5% 4.2% 2.9% 4.0% 8.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922016 INVEST 09/05/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922016 INVEST 09/05/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 34 35 37 40 41 46 47 46 50 54 47 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 37 40 41 46 47 46 50 54 47 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 37 38 43 44 43 47 51 44 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 30 31 36 37 36 40 44 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT