* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922016 09/05/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 43 48 54 58 61 63 65 66 67 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 43 48 40 42 45 47 49 50 44 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 42 46 39 40 43 45 47 48 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 4 5 8 5 12 15 16 16 16 22 21 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 3 2 4 4 -3 -2 -2 -3 0 -4 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 184 171 124 156 285 303 299 308 300 297 308 341 347 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.9 30.2 30.4 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 152 154 154 154 152 155 160 167 171 170 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 149 149 150 150 149 145 145 149 154 158 160 159 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 57 58 59 58 56 53 55 58 61 64 63 67 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 27 34 34 28 17 8 -22 -32 -40 -49 -33 -37 200 MB DIV 26 4 -2 -4 7 8 15 29 27 20 4 7 16 700-850 TADV 0 2 6 5 9 6 3 5 2 7 2 -1 -6 LAND (KM) 427 466 371 246 146 63 -30 59 106 122 89 48 -8 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.9 15.4 16.1 16.7 18.0 19.1 20.3 21.2 22.2 22.8 23.1 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 61.6 62.7 63.7 64.7 65.7 67.8 70.0 72.1 74.0 75.9 77.7 79.5 81.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 10 10 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 54 57 85 63 56 63 80 66 74 62 55 42 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 20. 24. 27. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 8. 13. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. 31. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.6 61.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922016 INVEST 09/05/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.87 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 63.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.41 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.35 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.67 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.14 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.77 1.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 234.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.71 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.6 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 29.7% 18.0% 11.8% 9.2% 10.0% 21.7% Logistic: 5.6% 34.7% 23.2% 10.0% 0.0% 15.5% 12.8% Bayesian: 0.7% 3.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 3.3% Consensus: 4.8% 22.7% 14.0% 7.3% 3.1% 8.7% 12.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922016 INVEST 09/05/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922016 INVEST 09/05/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 40 43 48 40 42 45 47 49 50 44 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 40 45 37 39 42 44 46 47 41 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 35 40 32 34 37 39 41 42 36 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 33 25 27 30 32 34 35 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT