* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922016 09/05/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 34 40 45 51 53 54 57 59 61 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 34 40 34 35 37 39 41 38 37 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 32 34 31 32 34 34 34 34 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 6 5 6 12 15 21 19 20 23 21 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 3 0 2 -1 -2 0 0 2 -2 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 163 199 218 174 218 267 259 278 263 271 273 283 262 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.5 29.7 30.1 30.4 30.4 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 155 155 154 153 154 161 164 172 171 171 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 154 154 154 152 149 148 154 153 160 162 161 155 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -53.2 -52.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 13 12 13 12 11 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 58 56 56 56 54 51 54 56 62 64 65 65 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 19 26 34 25 17 14 -12 -17 -30 -28 -39 -40 200 MB DIV 40 33 7 3 -4 9 29 30 34 19 21 17 9 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 4 7 8 4 8 6 9 6 8 4 LAND (KM) 412 444 374 263 169 63 -56 36 45 100 156 -12 0 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.7 15.1 15.7 16.4 17.6 18.8 20.1 21.4 22.7 24.0 25.3 26.7 LONG(DEG W) 61.3 62.8 64.1 65.3 66.5 69.0 71.2 73.5 75.5 77.3 79.1 80.8 82.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 48 56 88 44 76 67 84 63 62 55 54 80 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 31. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 1. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 15. 21. 23. 24. 27. 29. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.5 61.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922016 INVEST 09/05/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.78 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 62.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.40 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.49 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.8 to -3.1 0.62 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.19 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.86 1.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 211.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.73 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 27.0% 13.9% 11.0% 8.5% 9.5% 19.4% Logistic: 3.5% 21.7% 10.7% 3.5% 0.0% 7.3% 9.6% Bayesian: 0.6% 4.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.8% Consensus: 3.8% 17.6% 8.5% 4.9% 2.9% 5.6% 9.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922016 INVEST 09/05/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922016 INVEST 09/05/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 32 34 40 34 35 37 39 41 38 37 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 33 39 33 34 36 38 40 37 36 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 35 29 30 32 34 36 33 32 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 28 22 23 25 27 29 26 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT