* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922016 09/04/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 34 38 40 43 45 47 49 51 52 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 34 38 37 39 32 31 29 34 36 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 31 28 32 28 27 27 29 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 18 18 16 13 14 15 22 21 25 27 28 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 3 0 -3 -1 -1 0 2 -1 0 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 157 185 219 224 215 206 233 245 239 243 239 262 266 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.3 29.9 30.4 30.4 30.2 30.3 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 153 154 156 155 153 158 169 172 172 172 172 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 156 156 157 156 151 154 165 171 169 161 161 161 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 13 14 13 12 11 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 57 55 51 51 51 49 52 55 61 62 63 59 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 6 5 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 26 17 9 17 24 15 18 2 2 -2 2 -14 -24 200 MB DIV 41 23 13 0 9 8 46 42 68 28 23 -2 19 700-850 TADV 3 -2 -6 -4 2 6 0 5 8 10 10 9 6 LAND (KM) 476 518 353 217 133 82 5 22 -22 -20 -6 160 368 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.7 17.6 18.7 19.6 20.9 21.9 23.1 24.1 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 60.1 61.8 63.5 65.1 66.7 69.7 72.5 75.2 77.6 79.9 82.1 84.2 86.1 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 16 16 16 15 14 14 12 12 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 71 52 83 48 86 64 16 78 107 109 8 53 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 33. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -7. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -12. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. 21. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.0 60.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922016 INVEST 09/04/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.51 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 68.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.44 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.57 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.8 to -3.1 0.62 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.20 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.88 1.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 231.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.71 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 20.8% 12.0% 10.1% 7.4% 8.6% 15.4% Logistic: 6.5% 20.6% 9.9% 5.5% 0.0% 5.1% 4.4% Bayesian: 0.7% 5.0% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% Consensus: 4.9% 15.5% 7.7% 5.2% 2.5% 4.6% 6.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922016 INVEST 09/04/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922016 INVEST 09/04/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 32 34 38 37 39 32 31 29 34 36 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 32 36 35 37 30 29 27 32 34 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 28 32 31 33 26 25 23 28 30 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 25 27 20 19 17 22 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT