* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922016 09/04/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 31 35 39 42 45 46 51 53 52 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 31 35 39 38 35 36 30 34 34 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 27 30 27 29 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 18 18 16 17 16 20 23 29 26 32 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 6 4 0 -1 -2 -1 3 0 0 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 163 159 184 213 220 200 251 242 251 241 242 238 243 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.6 30.1 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 152 154 155 155 155 164 173 172 173 172 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 153 155 156 157 154 153 160 169 170 168 162 165 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -53.1 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 13 13 14 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 57 55 53 50 49 51 50 56 56 62 63 61 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 5 5 5 5 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 39 28 17 9 16 23 19 12 -13 0 0 -1 -35 200 MB DIV 30 34 20 5 1 0 11 50 42 50 14 14 21 700-850 TADV 0 3 -2 -6 -5 7 2 0 11 17 13 9 12 LAND (KM) 501 461 499 361 234 143 12 30 -22 8 -37 132 368 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.9 17.8 18.8 20.1 21.5 22.7 24.0 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 58.5 60.3 62.0 63.6 65.2 68.2 71.1 73.8 76.5 78.9 81.3 83.6 85.8 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 16 16 16 14 14 14 14 12 13 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 65 71 53 86 43 85 40 90 102 12 120 61 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 33. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -9. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 5. 9. 12. 15. 16. 21. 23. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.6 58.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922016 INVEST 09/04/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.48 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 63.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.41 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.42 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.8 to -3.1 0.63 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.20 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.87 1.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 234.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.71 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 17.4% 11.1% 9.2% 6.5% 8.1% 14.5% Logistic: 4.6% 20.0% 9.5% 4.6% 0.0% 4.2% 3.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 3.8% 12.8% 7.0% 4.6% 2.2% 4.1% 5.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922016 INVEST 09/04/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922016 INVEST 09/04/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 31 31 35 39 38 35 36 30 34 34 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 29 33 37 36 33 34 28 32 32 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 30 34 33 30 31 25 29 29 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 24 28 27 24 25 19 23 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT