* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922016 09/04/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 33 34 38 43 45 46 45 48 50 53 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 33 34 38 43 38 44 42 44 45 48 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 31 32 29 32 31 30 26 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 15 18 17 14 16 14 19 25 27 28 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 6 5 -1 -2 -1 2 0 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 169 171 170 192 216 211 220 239 246 236 246 239 247 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.3 30.0 30.5 30.5 30.2 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 151 152 154 155 153 158 171 173 173 172 173 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 153 154 154 156 155 151 155 169 173 173 164 166 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 58 57 55 54 51 50 50 53 55 61 63 64 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 6 5 5 5 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 47 43 30 17 8 25 18 23 -1 -1 0 -2 -11 200 MB DIV 39 28 26 9 9 4 12 49 36 66 24 34 22 700-850 TADV -5 0 3 -2 -6 3 4 1 7 10 8 11 9 LAND (KM) 614 505 482 505 353 144 102 -6 66 11 42 2 221 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.7 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.6 17.4 18.3 19.2 20.6 21.6 22.9 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 56.7 58.6 60.4 62.0 63.6 66.8 69.8 72.6 75.4 78.0 80.6 83.1 85.6 STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 17 16 16 15 14 14 15 13 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 58 68 67 53 87 98 69 18 86 28 49 12 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 33. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 4. 8. 13. 15. 16. 15. 18. 20. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.4 56.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922016 INVEST 09/04/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.52 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 66.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.43 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.46 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.8 to -3.1 0.62 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.22 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.87 1.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 222.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.72 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 18.0% 11.5% 9.6% 7.0% 8.4% 15.5% Logistic: 4.3% 14.3% 5.5% 2.1% 0.0% 2.6% 4.8% Bayesian: 0.4% 3.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% Consensus: 3.9% 11.9% 5.9% 3.9% 2.3% 3.7% 6.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922016 INVEST 09/04/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922016 INVEST 09/04/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 33 34 38 43 38 44 42 44 45 48 18HR AGO 30 29 31 31 32 36 41 36 42 40 42 43 46 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 31 36 31 37 35 37 38 41 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 30 25 31 29 31 32 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT