* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922016 09/04/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 41 47 52 54 57 61 63 65 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 37 41 47 52 48 56 60 62 61 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 33 35 37 39 36 42 43 43 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 9 8 11 13 15 8 8 16 22 22 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 2 2 7 2 0 0 0 4 0 2 1 SHEAR DIR 156 150 159 153 182 200 176 248 207 243 220 228 225 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.6 30.2 30.5 30.4 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 151 152 153 155 155 155 163 173 172 172 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 155 156 155 155 156 154 152 160 170 172 170 163 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 13 13 12 14 13 12 12 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 60 58 56 54 52 52 54 52 57 57 65 65 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 6 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 60 63 60 57 40 29 28 28 33 -3 7 -1 -5 200 MB DIV 53 65 52 39 27 5 17 10 46 40 41 12 17 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -4 0 0 0 8 1 -1 9 10 9 9 LAND (KM) 607 421 352 387 433 285 191 30 -13 34 79 29 52 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.2 14.6 15.4 16.4 17.4 18.3 19.5 20.7 21.8 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 56.2 58.5 60.3 61.9 63.4 66.2 69.0 71.6 74.2 76.9 79.2 81.6 83.8 STM SPEED (KT) 23 20 17 15 14 14 14 13 14 13 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 67 66 75 51 63 80 79 35 21 75 52 45 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 23 CX,CY: -22/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 33. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 17. 22. 24. 27. 31. 33. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.6 56.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922016 INVEST 09/04/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 6.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.74 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 64.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.42 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.52 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.75 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.34 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.89 2.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 182.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 38.5% 21.3% 11.5% 8.9% 9.9% 20.4% Logistic: 3.0% 21.7% 9.3% 2.7% 0.0% 5.3% 8.6% Bayesian: 0.5% 3.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.2% Consensus: 3.9% 21.1% 10.4% 4.7% 3.0% 5.1% 10.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922016 INVEST 09/04/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922016 INVEST 09/04/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 37 41 47 52 48 56 60 62 61 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 39 45 50 46 54 58 60 59 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 34 40 45 41 49 53 55 54 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 32 37 33 41 45 47 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT