* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922016 09/03/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 43 50 57 60 63 65 67 66 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 43 50 57 52 60 60 61 54 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 36 38 41 44 46 48 49 49 50 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 6 10 14 12 11 7 16 18 25 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 6 6 0 7 -1 -2 -1 1 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 137 156 169 166 157 200 194 213 257 244 237 237 227 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.3 30.0 30.5 30.5 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 147 148 150 155 155 153 158 171 173 172 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 157 152 150 152 156 156 152 156 168 173 172 166 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 13 13 12 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 58 57 56 53 54 52 51 51 52 54 60 60 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 56 55 54 49 41 21 24 21 13 -1 2 0 -10 200 MB DIV 25 35 32 32 34 17 6 25 34 33 53 30 22 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -9 -6 0 0 5 4 -1 6 10 12 15 LAND (KM) 851 646 489 411 411 371 189 135 -6 77 33 54 0 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.2 14.5 15.2 16.2 17.1 18.2 19.1 20.4 21.4 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 53.7 55.9 57.8 59.5 61.0 64.0 66.9 69.8 72.6 75.4 78.0 80.5 82.8 STM SPEED (KT) 21 20 18 16 15 15 15 15 14 14 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 64 65 69 75 31 92 97 73 37 88 58 50 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 32. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 20. 27. 30. 33. 35. 37. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.6 53.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922016 INVEST 09/03/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.79 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 60.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.39 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.16 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.75 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.27 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.86 1.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 194.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.75 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.1 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 28.3% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 20.7% Logistic: 2.1% 13.4% 5.0% 0.9% 0.0% 2.5% 10.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 3.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% Consensus: 3.4% 15.0% 6.1% 0.3% 0.0% 4.0% 10.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922016 INVEST 09/03/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922016 INVEST 09/03/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 39 43 50 57 52 60 60 61 54 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 36 40 47 54 49 57 57 58 51 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 35 42 49 44 52 52 53 46 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 33 40 35 43 43 44 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT