* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922016 09/03/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 39 44 50 55 61 68 74 80 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 39 44 50 55 53 64 40 46 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 33 36 38 40 38 46 33 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 8 8 7 8 10 5 3 4 6 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -2 0 3 1 7 2 3 -1 -3 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 137 135 135 154 174 148 202 212 252 335 345 330 339 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 141 144 145 147 148 151 154 154 153 156 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 141 141 144 145 146 146 147 149 148 148 149 160 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 12 13 12 12 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 57 57 58 57 55 52 50 48 47 50 52 56 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 59 56 50 43 32 21 13 12 20 28 30 26 2 200 MB DIV 33 18 18 34 41 22 6 -2 1 11 18 12 -9 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -4 -5 0 -3 4 4 5 2 3 3 LAND (KM) 1001 947 918 908 790 606 557 406 148 -5 0 -55 42 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.5 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.9 15.7 16.6 17.3 18.0 18.4 19.1 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 48.9 50.5 51.9 53.3 54.6 57.3 59.9 62.3 64.7 67.0 69.5 72.1 74.6 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 13 13 13 13 12 11 12 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 41 49 50 55 63 55 66 53 53 78 76 95 77 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 33. 36. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 19. 25. 30. 36. 43. 49. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.3 48.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922016 INVEST 09/03/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.80 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 51.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.33 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.33 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.69 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.25 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.81 1.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 161.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.78 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 20.1% 11.9% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 19.5% Logistic: 1.7% 15.0% 6.3% 1.1% 0.0% 3.9% 13.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 3.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 2.8% 12.7% 6.2% 3.7% 0.0% 1.3% 11.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922016 INVEST 09/03/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922016 INVEST 09/03/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 34 39 44 50 55 53 64 40 46 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 37 42 48 53 51 62 38 44 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 32 37 43 48 46 57 33 39 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 28 34 39 37 48 24 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT